Week 23 May - 29 May 2007

This site is unconnected to the award winning blog concerned with:
"Reflections on human rights and peacemaking in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict" for that site please click on:
http://guidetotheperplexed.blogspot.com/

· EVENTS
· ANALYSIS

· Main Points:

1. 33 Qassam missiles hit Sderot (250 in last 12 days) and the surrounding area.
Two Israeli civilians were killed and 16 injured. The missiles have also created extensive fire damage to summer wheat crops. The quantity of missiles fired has decreased this week but their quality and effectiveness in terms of accuracy, larger explosive charge, and mainly ball bearing shrapnel, has increased. Very few buildings or even shelters in Sderot are able to protect residents against the new more powerful Qassams.

2. The total lack of protection and neglect of the civilians in Sderot continues to embarrass the government and IDF including the Home Front Command. 1,000 residents have returned from breaks away from the bombing but 10,000 have left the town. The Israeli Army and government, as well as Russian billionaire Arcadi Gaydamak, are supplying their hotel and camp accommodation. Children’s exams are being held in schools and halls outside missile range. The President of the Manufacturers of Israel claimed a budget, previously withheld, had now been approved to protect Sderot’s factories. He asked why it had taken 6 years (4,000 missiles and mortars have been fired at or near Sderot in that time).

3. Defence Minister Amir Peretz, also current Labour leader, who is a resident of Sderot, cast his vote for the Labour Party Leadership Primaries; he came third. Former Navy and Shin Bet head Ami Ayalon came second behind former PM and Chief of Staff Ehud Barak. The second and final round of voting between the remaining contenders, Barak and Ayalon, is in two weeks.

4. The Brodet Committee reviewed the Defence Budget and concluded that defence cuts and inefficient systems were partly to blame for Second Lebanon War failures.

5. 58 arrests of leading terrorist and political leaders from Hamas, Fatah, and Fatah’s Al Aqsa Brigades were made in both Gaza and the West Bank.


· ANALYSIS - General Picture:

· The missile threat to Sderot is now perceived as strategic, and no longer local, by the government and IDF. This is because:

1) The quality, range, and accuracy of the missiles continues to improve. Ashqelon, a major city, and Ashdod, a strategically vital port, will soon be vulnerable.

2) The civilian population of Sderot are completely exposed. The latest Qassam missiles can destroy shelters and safe rooms within houses. The government has neglected the Home Front consistently for over 6 years. Sderot has been ignored because of a) its location near Gaza, b) its population mix: Sephardi Jews and poor recent ex Soviet Union immigrants, and c) the relatively low death rate in relation to the number of missiles fired (roughly 4,000 in 6 years).

3) The neglect of Sderot coupled to the increased effectiveness of the missiles has led to large levels of emigration from the town. A similar phenomenon occurred in Qiryat Shmona (on the Northern Lebanese border) during the late 1970s and early 1980s under similar circumstances. This led to the Litani Operation of 1978 and the First Lebanon War of 1982. Significant population displacement is considered a strategic threat to the State’s future well being and security.

4) The fact that Hamas, Islamic Jihad, breakaway Fatah Al Aqsa Brigades cells, quasi Marxist Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine cells, and small Al Qaeda related and other Islamist cells can dictate Israel’s domestic politics, and increasingly, regional politics, has become a strategic factor. It is no coincidence that the kidnapping of Corporal Shalit from Israel to Gaza led to kidnappings in Northern Israel by Hizb’allah. The links between the terrorist groups mean that local incidents can become strategic threats. Once deterrence is perceived to have weakened all groups in the region are prepared to vie with one another to gain advantage. The popularity and support for each group and cell increases with each attack on Israel.


· The relatively large number of arrests of prominent Palestinians is a clear attempt to emphasise to those in control of terrorism Israel’s true capabilities should the State take decisive action. Olmert’s government has been characterised by relative restraint preferring to use EU monitors on the Gaza border, and happy to accept Lebanese Army and UNIFIL forces on Israel’s Northern border. Israel has two options in the medium term if the missile threat persists: a) to get an international force into Gaza, or b) to invade with overwhelming force. Olmert prefers the first option. Paradoxically, it is possible that his preferred option will only be achieved after a major military ground operation.


· If Ami Ayalon wins the Labour Leadership Primary, Israel may face a prolonged period of instability. He has insisted Olmert resign from the government or he will take Labour out of the coalition. This will not necessarily lead to early elections, as most political parties see no advantage in holding them. The pressure on Olmert to resign will increase which may lead to fissures within his party Kadima. Should Kadima split a right wing government may be formed either with or without elections.


· Ami Ayalon has proven to be politically naïve. Olmert’s position is vulnerable, he being unlikely to withstand the fallout from the Winograd Committee’s Final Report on the Second Lebanon War, due out this summer. Labour is not ready for general elections and is likely to lose even more seats under Ayalon. Only if Peretz puts his dislike for Barak ahead of common political sense will he allow Ayalon to win the next round of Primaries by allowing the Peretz Labour Party membership vote to go to Ayalon. If Peretz can make a deal with Barak, involving Barak going to Defence and he, Peretz, to Finance, Welfare, or Industry, it is likely Olmert will accept it and reshuffle the Cabinet accordingly. Barak had said he had no interest in leaving the coalition or early elections but has recently hinted the opposite unless Olmert gives a date for his resignation.

· At the moment it appears Peretz would prefer to deal with Ayalon because he feels he stands more chance of a senior position within an Ayalon-led coalition. This can only occur if Ayalon makes a 180 degree U-Turn on his previous position to leave the government should Olmert not resign immediately.
All three Labour candidates have shown political ineptness. Peretz said he is now the kingmaker, which has alienated him from his colleagues and made him a laughing stock amongst the public.
Barak and Ayalon keep changing their positions in relation to whether they will or will not stay in the government.
Barak's position is so weak he has refused to hold Press conferences to explain his position on anything. Ayalon, by all accounts, behaves as though he is running a military unit, issuing orders and assuming they will be obeyed. In Israeli politics, in which each party is a coalition that then enters a coalition government, this is unlikely to win him any friends. His political position, Centre-Left will also appeal to few.
Unfortunately for Barak the Winograd Committee is likely to severely criticise his role leading up to the Second Lebanon War.

Links:
For the best English language news site on Israel:
http://www.jpost.com/

For a vigorous Liberal-Left position of the Israeli daily paper:
http://www.haaretz.com/

For a Centre-Left view on Israel, in occasionally appalling English:
http://www.ynetnews.com/home/0,7340,L-3083,00.html

For an insight into Arab and Muslim media coverage of the Israel-Palestinian issue, anti-Semitism, and other Middle East issues see:
http://www.memri.org/

For an overview of the media coverage of Israel see the BICOM (Britain Israel Research and Communications Centre) site. Below are the sites for -

News headlines with links to each site:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/headlines/

A written summary of the news:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/

The main issues behind the news:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/behind_the_news/

Extracts from editorial and article Opinion:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/comment_and_opinion/

A small selection of Quotes:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/quote_of_the_day/