Week 16 May – 22 May 2007

· EVENTS
· ANALYSIS

· Main Points:

1. Over 150 Qassam missiles fired from Gaza landed in Israel mostly in and around the southern town of Sderot. The government were forced to abandon their policy of restraint and order the IDF to respond.

2. IAF missiles kill 40 Hamas and Islamic Jihad operatives in Gaza. Hamas threaten a campaign of suicide bombers and missile attacks from the West Bank.

3. The offer of $65m by billionaire Arcadi Gaydamak (wanted for alleged tax evasion, money laundering, and illegal arms deals in France), to protect the town of Sderot, resulted in some visits by government ministers and, previously withheld, promises of aid. The town is now under the emergency powers of the Home Front Command and is able to claim defence financing and some compensation and tax breaks.
23 of Sderot’s 58 bomb shelters are operational. 16% of the town’s population have left permanently.

4. The OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) invited Israel to membership talks. This follows Israel’s Gross Domestic Product growth of 5.1% in 2006 and Israel’s rising from 23rd to 15rh in the World Economic Forum’s global competitive index, 17 places above any other Middle Eastern state.

5. The Winograd Inquiry released Public Security Minister Avi Dichter’s evidence in which he claimed Chief of Staff Dan Halutz deceived him as to IDF capability, and the length of time the conflict would last. Defence Minister Peretz said that the IDF now know their operational goals. He blamed previous Defence Ministers and Chiefs of Staff for the absence of counter measures to deal with the missiles from Gaza and Lebanon, a claim supported by the independent State Comptroller (9 May).


· ANALYSIS - General Picture:

· The barrage of 155 missiles fired against Sderot this week, was decided by the military wings of Hamas and Islamic Jihad in direct response to the losses they suffered during the recent Hamas-Fatah conflict that left scores of Palestinian dead, and which had led to their deep unpopularity within Gaza. They believe that by provoking a war with Israel they will be able to temporarily put aside their differences with the other Palestinian factions, and regain their position as the pre-eminent opposition to Israel. No Palestinian faction dares attack another during a conflagration with Israel.

· Hamas itself has split. The leaders in Damascus do not want a deal with Fatah unless they can control at least 40% of the seats within the PLO. They support Iran and Syria and want to divert attention away from the forthcoming UNSC decisions to: a) prosecute the murderers of Lebanon’s late PM Hariri and b) to increase sanctions against Iran to limit their nuclear weapons development programme. The political wing of Hamas in Gaza are more prepared to make a deal with Fatah, and are prepared to leave Fatah alone to negotiate with Israel. This now means that both Hamas and Fatah are split politically, and, in practise, have little control over their military wings.

· The bombardment of Sderot has exposed the almost total neglect of the town. Time and again the IDF, and Defence and Finance Ministries have blocked or postponed any progress on dealing with the security of the town. The Winograd Committee of Inquiry into the Second Lebanon War has exposed this dereliction of duty, inefficiency, and lack of professionalism, as both endemic and systemic.

· Comments made this week by both the Defence Minister Peretz and Internal Security Minister Dichter have once again exposed deceit by the IDF High Command with regard to its preparedness. They also made clear that, and this was confirmed by the State Comptroller’s Office last week, the IDF and Defence and Finance Ministries had sabotaged all efforts to find a solution to the dual tunnel and missile threats from Gaza. Budgetary constraints are the most likely explanation for this gross dereliction of duty but, once again, it nevertheless exposes a systemic inability to think strategically.

· The current conflicts have the following possible outcomes:

1) A miscalculation might lead to a general war involving Syria, Iran, Hamas, and Hizb’allah. At the moment this remains the least likely possibility.

2) A war of attrition against Hamas and Islamic Jihad will continue in the Gaza Strip leading to the intervention of an international force, which may benefit everyone. This can only be realised if the split within Hamas ends and Islamic Jihad are threatened with severe consequences by Hamas and Fatah should they attack any international force.

3) The war of attrition may last several months at the end of which Hamas will declare a temporary truce. This will not end Qassam missile strikes on Israel as Islamic Jihad have always rejected any compromise or cessation of the conflict.

· The underlying causes of the conflict remain:

a) The various splits within the Palestinian factions all of whom are armed.

b) Syria’s refusal to hand over Harriri’s murderers.

c) Iran’s refusal to halt its nuclear weapons programme.

d) The inability of any of the Palestinian factions to deliver any agreement they may make.


Links:
For the best English language news site on Israel:
http://www.jpost.com/

For a vigorous Liberal-Left position of the Israeli daily paper:
http://www.haaretz.com/

For a Centre-Left view on Israel, in occasionally appalling English:
http://www.ynetnews.com/home/0,7340,L-3083,00.html

For an insight into Arab and Muslim media coverage of the Israel-Palestinian issue, anti-Semitism, and other Middle East issues see:
http://www.memri.org/

For an overview of the media coverage of Israel see the BICOM (Britain Israel Research and Communications Centre) site. Below are the sites for -

News headlines with links to each site:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/headlines/

A written summary of the news:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/

The main issues behind the news:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/behind_the_news/

Extracts from editorial and article Opinion:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/comment_and_opinion/

A small selection of Quotes:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/quote_of_the_day/