Week 11 July – 18 July 2007

This site is unconnected to the award winning blog concerned with: "Reflections on human rights and peacemaking in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict" for that site please click on:
http://guidetotheperplexed.blogspot.com/

· EVENTS
· ANALYSIS

· Main Points:

1· Hamas fired 5 Qassam missiles and 12 mortar rounds at Sderot in Israel and nearby farms, a small decrease on last week. The mortar fire was mainly directed at the Erez border crossing into Israel (N Gaza). The IDF lost its first soldier in combat this year during an operation to arrest wanted suspected terrorists and discover weapons and missiles within the Gaza Strip. Some of the 12 arrested men were taken back to Israel for questioning. The current series of IDF search and destroy missions into Gaza has ended. Hamas continued to arrest Fatah and Al Qaeda affiliated members, as part of its drive to impose its rule over the Gaza Strip. Egypt’s closure of the border continued despite protests by Gazans. Israel continued to allow essential non-commercial goods to flow into Gaza through the isolated Sufa crossing (SE Gaza), which has yet to be attacked. Significant commercial activity within Gaza had effectively ceased. Israel continued to lose millions of dollars of export income as a result of the closure by Hamas of the major Kerem Shalom crossing (S Gaza), to all flower, fruit and vegetable imports from Israel.

2· President Abbas has called for a meeting of the Central Council of the Palestine Liberation Organisation in which he hoped to get approval for new Presidential and Parliamentary elections. Hamas has no representation within the PLO, the sole internationally recognised representative body of the Palestinian people. Hamas countered with a plan to convene the Palestinian Legislative Council (Parliament), in which it is the majority party, on Sunday, where it proposes to adopt a no-confidence motion against the interim government of Salaam Fayyad. Prime Minister Fayyad’s emergency government ended after 30 days, he now heads a slightly expanded interim government of mainly technocrats and independents pending elections.

3· Prime Minister Olmert succeeded in getting a list of 250 Palestinian prisoners for release agreed by the government and security services. He also arranged an amnesty for 178 Al Aqsa Martyr’s Brigades members if they gave up their terrorist activities and handed in their weapons to security forces loyal to President Abbas. PM Olmert also had separate meetings with King Abdullah of Jordan and President Abbas. The Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades militia announced it was to disarm and would cease attacks on Israeli targets.

4· A series of meetings concerned with Israel-Palestine peace negotiations were announced. The Arab League is to send Jordan and Egypt’s Foreign Ministers to represent their views, but not their organisation, to Jerusalem for talks next week. Tony Blair is to come to Israel next week as a representative of the Quartet (UN, EU, US, Russia), he plans to stay one week in every four in Jerusalem. President Bush announced a proposed regional meeting, possibly in September, headed by Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, with all parties interested in peace.

5· Shimon Peres became Israel’s 9th President. He pledged to encourage the creation of a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine dispute, which he said was the majority view within Israel.

6· President Assad of Syria hinted, upon his swearing in for his second 7-year term with a 97.62% mandate, that he would consider talks with Israel, without US mediation, if Prime Minister Olmert pledged publicly to complete withdrawal from the Golan Heights. He also implied Turkey could be the intermediary in setting up such talks. A $1 billion Russo-Syrian arms deal was also confirmed.
The UN and US, in a closed UN meeting on UN Resolution 1701 that ended the Second Lebanon War, accused Syria of illegally transferring arms to Hizb’allah, in direct contravention of the mandatory Resolution (1701).

7· State Comptroller Micha Lindenstrauss released his office’s report on the Home Front during the Second Lebanon War (2006). All senior political and IDF figures were criticised for neglecting the Home Front. A total lack of strategic and local coordination and planning with regard to civilian protection was identified, which applied to successive governments, not just PM Olmert’s. 458 facilities containing dangerous chemicals remain unprotected from attack, as do all civilians living nearby.
Another report by a subcommittee of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee claimed that the civilian population in the North was effectively unprotected against a sudden chemical attack, had no access to gas masks, and that 50% of the population remained unprotected from missile attack and had no bomb shelters to go to.

8· India-Israel commercial ties strengthened with the confirmation of $1.6 billion of trade between the two countries (2006), and the announcement of a new $1.3 billion anti-missile project.

9· Iran agreed to International Atomic Energy Agency inspection of its heavy water plant at Arak. This facilitates the process of plutonium-based nuclear bomb making. Other safeguards upon the uranium enrichment plant at Nantaz were also agreed. The decision was made in advance of the UNSC meeting on increased sanctions on Iran for non-compliance with previous mandatory UNSC resolutions concerning nuclear weapons manufacture. Iran also agreed to an Iraqi offer for further talks in Baghdad, with the US, on Iraq’s security.

· ANALYSIS - General Picture:

· Hamas continued to impose its hegemony upon the Gaza Strip with its arrests of Al Qaeda affiliated militia members. This indicates its priorities remain the security and control of Gaza over and above any strategic anti-Western alliance with Al-Qaeda, a long time rival. However, temporary alliances may evolve in the future. The reduction in Qassam fire this week may also indicate an agreement with Islamic Jihad that Qassam missiles can no longer be fired without prior Hamas approval. The constant IDF raids into Gaza to counter Islamic Jihad fired rockets will have also forced Hamas’ hand. Hamas found it difficult to reconcile its claims to have brought increased security to Gaza with the increase in IDF raids. Egypt’s refusal to open the border to Gazans has also put pressure on Hamas that relied heavily on Iranian cash infusions via the EU monitored border crossing at Rafah. The refusal to supply Hamas with funds from the EU, US, Japan, and some Gulf States, has considerably restricted Hamas’ room for manoeuvre. Hamas also still needs Egyptian and Israeli cooperation to free its prisoners.

· A major political confrontation is likely should Hamas successfully convene the Palestinian Legislative Council and pass a motion of no confidence in President Abbas’ selected interim government of Salaam Fayyad. According to the lawyers and experts who drew up the Palestinian Constitution, the current government is illegal, because it requires the consent of the Hamas dominated Legislature. Hence, President Abbas’ attempts to reconvene the PLO, of which Hamas is not a member, to enable him to call new elections, thus bypassing any objections. Hamas have long been demanding to be represented in the only internationally recognised representative organisation of the Palestinian people (the PLO). In the short term the current standoff can only result in two Palestinian states or entities. But, in the medium term it is clear that Abbas can offer membership of the PLO in exchange for the return of Fatah’s presence in Gaza, and, new elections there.

· PM Olmert has agreed to the Fatah prisoner releases and amnesties for the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades militias because of Abbas’ impotence. The calls for negotiations by the Quartet members, their sending a high profile representative Tony Blair, and the forthcoming meeting concerned with presenting the Arab League position through the offices of the Jordanian and Egyptian Foreign Ministries are all designed to bolster Abbas. It is also likely that the Palestinian quasi-military Badr Brigade based in Jordan will be allowed to buttress Abbas’ security forces in the West Bank.

· Syria is currently making less belligerent noises because the UN Security Council is currently considering Syria’s violation of mandatory UNSC Resolution 1701 which makes it in breach of international law by transferring weapons to non-government forces in Lebanon (Hizb’allah). Nevertheless Syria is preparing for a war in 2008 should her demands not be met. The likelihood of a war this summer is slim unless someone makes a major miscalculation, which seems unlikely considering the increasing diplomatic activity planned for this summer and autumn, and the price both Iran and Syria would pay if they challenged the international community just as it gears up for peace and security talks in Baghdad, Jerusalem, and possibly Geneva in the fall.

· The State Comptroller’s report, together with that of a subcommittee of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Security Committee, clearly state that successive Israeli governments whether of Labour’s Ehud Barak or Likud’s Arik Sharon, have systematically neglected the protection, safety, and security of border region citizens. This criminal neglect continues today with no protection against gas or chemical attack because no gas masks could be distributed in time, and 50% of the population totally unprotected from missile attack, as they have no bomb shelters to go to. Almost no sensitive industrial or chemical sites are protected from missile attack.

· It has taken another 6 months to allocate funds to Sderot for bunkers and anti-missile shelters despite it having been under almost daily missile attack for nearly 6 years. Government bureaucracy, Treasury procrastination, and political posturing have been blamed for the delay. PM Olmert’s extraordinarily insensitive remarks about citizens having to expect to put up with these attacks exposed his underlying attitude of indifference to Israeli civilian suffering during the Second Lebanon War, and partially explain the government’s stunning neglect.

· The Winograd Committee’s report into the Second Lebanon War is likely to be further delayed as lawyers representing all those likely to be criticised demand clear notice so that they can prepare their clients’ defence. As this is likely to include almost every senior politician and IDF officer that has served in the last 7 years the delay may be significant (November/December). This, however, gives PM Olmert more time to either organise his rearguard action, or, be further exposed to even more reports highlighting systemic incompetence on the part of his, and all previous, governments. There is no question that to blame PM Olmert for all these systemic and chronic faults is unjust, but it is an unfortunate fact of democratic political life that one be sometimes sacrificed on the altar of public opinion. The evidence, however, points to a serial inability of the Israeli public to accept the financial and other sacrifices needed to sustain their own defence, and, to accept their own responsibility for the systemic lack of professionalism, neglect, and ineptitude of their own institutions. Two examples were the insistence by IDF Reservists on cutting their period spent on Reserve duty, which in turn was supported by the Knesset, along with constant cuts in the Defence Budget. This in turn led to two of the biggest problems faced by the IDF during the Second Lebanon War, the lack of fitness of the Reserves and the deplorable state of their combat equipment. Both of these faults were due directly to decisions taken by the very people upon whom they rebounded.

· Iran’s apparent flexibility in allowing inspections of its facilities is the clearest indication yet that UN Security Council pressure is paying off. It is possible that North Korea’s decision to suspend its nuclear programme as a result of pressure from China has also been a factor in Iran’s decision making. Much of Iran’s nuclear and missile development has been based on exchanges of information with the Asian dictatorship. It is clear that if China and Russia are prepared to join with the US and the UK in putting pressure on Iran to pursue a purely civilian nuclear energy programme she will be forced to do so. Without China and Russia’s consent the West will be faced with two stark options:
a) A military strike or b) a long-term strategy of containment.


Links:
For the best English language news site on Israel:
http://www.jpost.com/

For a vigorous Liberal-Left position of the Israeli daily paper:
http://www.haaretz.com/

For a Centre-Left view on Israel, in occasionally appalling English:
http://www.ynetnews.com/home/0,7340,L-3083,00.html

For an insight into Arab and Muslim media coverage of the Israel-Palestinian issue, anti-Semitism, and other Middle East issues see:
http://www.memri.org/

For an overview of the media coverage of Israel see the BICOM (Britain Israel Research and Communications Centre) site. Below are the sites for -

News headlines with links to each site:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/headlines/

A written summary of the news:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/

The main issues behind the news:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/behind_the_news/

Extracts from editorial and article Opinion:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/comment_and_opinion/

A small selection of Quotes:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/quote_of_the_day/

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