Week 19 July – 25 July 2007

This site is unconnected to the award winning blog concerned with: "Reflections on human rights and peacemaking in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict" for that site please click on:
http://guidetotheperplexed.blogspot.com/

Apologies for delays in posting this week Jo Rowling's Deathly Hallows called:

· EVENTS
· ANALYSIS

· Main Points:

1· Hamas and Islamic Jihad fired 5 Qassam missiles and 5 mortar rounds at Israel last week, slightly less than the previous week. Hamas and Fatah continued to arrest and imprison each other’s members. Hamas warned President Abbas that its patience was wearing thin; any more arrests would lead to a violent response. Fatah and Hamas students clashed at the an-Najah University of Nablus on the West Bank. Hamas also accused Abbas of collaborating with Israel in attempts to assassinate their leaders. President Abbas forbade Palestinian Authority justice system workers to function under Hamas rule in Gaza, so Hamas set up their own court system. Israel continued small-scale military operations within the Gaza Strip to intercept Qassam firing cells.

2· President Abbas won the support of the Palestine Liberation Organisation’s Central Council to hold early legislative and presidential elections. He will ask the reconstituted PLO Palestine National Council to introduce proportional representation and eliminate regional balloting, a system that had benefited Hamas due to splits in Fatah during the 2006 election. Hamas declared the move illegal because the Hamas-dominated Palestinian Legislative Council of the Palestinian Authority did not approve the move. They also claimed there would be no elections in the Gaza Strip, declared elections in the West Bank would not be trouble free, and could only be won by Fatah through abuse of the electoral system.

3· Israel released 255 Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and Democratic Front of the Liberation of Palestine members from prison in an attempt to boost Abbas’ position, and as a goodwill gesture. This followed the freeing of withheld Palestinian taxes, and payments from the EU, Japan and the US to the emergency government of President Abbas on the West Bank. Islamic Jihad in the West Bank declared they are prepared to halt suicide bombings within Israel in order to enable a general truce. Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, meanwhile, unveiled its new Quds 4 rocket that can hit any point in Ashqelon city, and any point up to half way along the Ashqelon-Ashdod motorway along Israel's southern Mediterranean coast.

4· IDF intelligence briefs concerning the completion of Hizb’allah’s rearmament in southern Lebanon appeared to be confirmed by its head Hassan Nasrallah who declared Hizb’allah could now hit anywhere in Israel. The UN Security Council accused Syria of clandestinely rearming Hizb’allah in breach of mandatory UNSC Resolution 1701 that ended the Second Lebanon War. The UNSC called on its Secretary General to help implement new measures that would prevent cross border smuggling. The UNSC criticised Syria for its non-cooperation over maps of the disputed Shebaa Farms area that Syria claims is Lebanese, and that Israel controls and insists is part of Syria; a UN special committee had confirmed that the Farms were Syrian. The UNSC also criticised Israel for its continued over flights of Lebanon, in breach of Resolution 1701. Representatives of Iran, Hamas, Hizb’allah, and Syria met in Damascus to reaffirm their strategic alliance. President Ahmadinejad also reaffirmed his support for the Palestinian armed struggle.

5· Prime Minister Ehud Olmert declared he would fight and win the next election. Vice Premier Haim Ramon claimed there was no one in Kadima who could seriously replace PM Olmert, and he would challenge and defeat both Labour’s Barak and Likud’s Netanyahu in any elections. PM Olmert dismissed the court’s decision to enforce the completion of Sderot’s school bunkers before the school year, saying the government, not the courts, decides allocation of resources. The High Court responded to Olmert’s criticisms by calling upon him to cease undermining and terrorising judges just for doing their jobs. The Prime Minister also stated most of the criticisms in State Comptroller Micha Lindenstrauss’ report were already being addressed. PM Olmert rejected any major military assault on Gaza and insisted withdrawal from the West Bank was inevitable.

6· The Foreign Ministers of Egypt and Jordan held talks in Israel as purveyors of the Arab League’s views on how peace talks might progress. An interim meeting before the autumn major peace conference under the auspices of the United States was also suggested.

7· Tony Blair visited Israel and the West Bank for the first time as representative of the Quartet (EU, Russia, UN and US). He stated he was there to listen and would probably establish himself in the British Governor of Palestine’s old residence, Government House, adjacent to the UN compound in Jerusalem. He stated he would probably reside there one week every month from September. His stated mandate is to promote reform and economic development, and to build state institutions for the proposed state of Palestine.

8· The Winograd Committee report on the Second Lebanon War will address the issue of alleged war crimes. This was confirmed in a letter to Meretz MK Zehava Gal-On.

9· Israel completed a $4 billion solar energy deal to supply power to 500,000 households in southern California’s Mojave Desert. Israel also announced that its first all weather spy satellite will be launched in September using an Indian rocket fired from Sriharikota space centre in India. Its main function will be to monitor Iran’s nuclear weapons programmes.

· ANALYSIS - General Picture:

· Hamas continued to mount minor attacks on Israel and the border. The level of violence indicates that Hamas is not interested at present in a major confrontation with Israel. The split between Hamas and Fatah widened. President Abbas is at present taking a political risk by closing the door for the moment on any talks with Hamas, or with Syria. His short-term strategy is to win the presidential and legislative elections and control the West Bank, then having gained a power base, and from a position of strength, attempt reconciliation with Hamas at a time of his choosing. Hamas have made it clear they will sabotage this strategy through violence on the West Bank and no compromise over Gaza.

· There are signs from the prisoner release and the attempt by Islamic Jihad to have a truce, that the dual pressure of Israeli and Palestinian security forces arrests, together with a clear political strategy of peace talks, new elections, and a crackdown on Hamas, have forced the militants on the West Bank to give the political option a chance. Hamas will wait to see when the elections are called, and to what extent they are penalised on the West Bank during the process, before deciding how, or if, they will sabotage them.

· Both the UN and the Iran-Syria axis are jostling for position over Lebanon, Iran’s nuclear weapons programme, and the International Tribunal into the assassination of Lebanese PM Hariri. Iran and Syria by rearming Hizb’allah, and organising attacks on UNIFIL forces and the Lebanese Army, as well as sending Katyushas into Israel, are warning the UN in general and the US in particular that they will respond violently if their national self interest, the survival of their respective regimes, is deemed at risk. Hizb’allah’s rearmament was seen as vital to counter any military threat to Iran, and any threat to Syria’s regime. The reestablishment of this strategic military balance is a warning to the US that they may be able to withdraw their troops from Iraq in the future but Israel remains permanently vulnerable to missile attack.

· Shebaa Farms is a 25km² area of Syrian territory on the slopes of the Golan Heights that Syria has pretended is Lebanese in order to give Hizb’allah the pretext it needs to continue its attacks on Israel. A UN special committee has deemed it Syrian, but because it has become a domestic political issue in Lebanon, with all parties now claiming it as Lebanese, the UN has asked Israel to consider handing it over to the UN to end its being used as a propaganda and military tool. Israel remains concerned at the precedent this will set, and in any case would want official Lebanese government recognition of Israel in return.

· The visit of President Ahmadinejad to Damascus was to reinforce the strategic military alliance between Iran, Syria, Hamas, and Hizb’allah. An attack on one of the radical quartet would result in a response from them all. Were Israel or the US to attack Iran’s nuclear weapons making facilities Israel would be attacked by the alliance. If the Hariri Tribunal resulted in the arrest or imprisonment of any of the Syrian regime’s elite, UNIFIL forces would be attacked. Any US or coalition forces in Iraq would also be attacked by agents and surrogates of both Iran and Syria. The radical quartet also prepared its responses to the peace and UN conferences on Palestine, the increased sanctions on Iran because of her illegal uranium enrichment practices, and to the trial of those suspected Syrian agents involved in the assassination of Lebanese PM Hariri, all to be held or reviewed in September.

· PM Ehud Olmert made it clear that he would destroy his Kadima party rather than be forced out of power, or to make way for Tzipi Livni the Foreign Minister and Deputy Premier. His criticisms of the High Court, State Comptroller Micha Lindenstrauss (though not his report), of Defence Minister Barak, and opposition Likud leader Bibi Netanyahu, as well as implicitly the IDF by his absolute rejection of any major Gaza operation, indicate what the political contours will be for the rest of his administration:
1. He will not tolerate any attempts to oust him either by the Winograd Committee or members of his own party, not without an extraordinary political struggle.
2. He is not afraid of Labour leaving the government or of challenging them in any elections should they be called. This also implies he assumes he can replace Labour with the orthodox United Torah Judaism Party should Labour resign from the government.
3. He will not allow the Courts to interfere with political decisions made by his government, at least not without a fight.
4. He will not allow the IDF to have more money until they radically reform themselves. Nor will he be pushed into any major military operation that could be used as an excuse to bolster defence spending.
5. He expects civilians who live in border lying regions to accept their lives are difficult and subject to danger and to adapt accordingly.
6. He will resist the legalistic culture of forcing politicians to resign following unsubstantiated accusations or aspersions on their character or personality.
7. He expects to preside over the withdrawal of Israeli forces and citizens from most of the West Bank under the umbrella of new peace talks later this year and beyond.

· The visit of Tony Blair and the Arab delegation that presented the views of the Arab League indicate that the strategy of isolating Hamas, Iran, Syria, and Hizb’allah, whilst pursuing a unilateral peace on the West Bank starting in earnest this September, has been agreed by the Quartet (EU, Russia, UN, and US), some members of the Arab League and Israel. This will coincide with further measures to isolate and pressurise Iran and Syria in the UN. Their expected reaction has been outlined above.

Links:
For the best English language news site on Israel:
http://www.jpost.com/

For a vigorous Liberal-Left position of the Israeli daily paper:
http://www.haaretz.com/

For a Centre-Left view on Israel, in occasionally appalling English: http://www.ynetnews.com/home/0,7340,L-3083,00.html

For an insight into Arab and Muslim media coverage of the Israel-Palestinian issue, anti-Semitism, and other Middle East issues see:
http://www.memri.org/

For an overview of the media coverage of Israel see the BICOM (Britain Israel Research and Communications Centre) site. Below are the sites for -

News headlines with links to each site:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/headlines/

A written summary of the news:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/

The main issues behind the news:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/behind_the_news/

Extracts from editorial and article Opinion:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/comment_and_opinion/

A small selection of Quotes:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/quote_of_the_day/

_______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________