Week 27 June – 3 July 2007

This site is unconnected to the award winning blog concerned with: "Reflections on human rights and peacemaking in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict" for that site please click on:http://guidetotheperplexed.blogspot.com/

· EVENTS
· ANALYSIS


· Main Points:

1· Hamas applied sufficient pressure on the Dagmoush clan to force the release of BBC correspondent Alan Johnston. Negotiations between Hamas and the Dagmoush continued up until the last minute before his release. The Dagmoush had accepted blood money for the death of one of their clan at the hands of Hamas several weeks ago but were holding out for further concessions by demanding the release of convicted Islamist prisoners. But once the clan realised that Hamas would continue the siege of their part of Sabra neighbourhood in Gaza City indefinitely, and relatives of the kidnappers had been arrested, and upon their receiving promises of safety in front of independent witnesses, they finally acquiesced to the pressure. Hamas made clear they expected negotiations to continue with Israel over the release of Corporal Schalit in exchange for the mass release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, but exclusively through Egyptian mediation.

2· Egyptian President Mubarak and former Hamas PM Haniyeh both rejected any involvement of international forces in or around the Gaza Strip. Hamas stated they will treat any such forces as occupiers. Israel’s attempts to disengage completely from Gaza and make the security threat and weapons supplies into the Strip an international issue appeared to have failed for the moment. Russia, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt pleaded for the reconstitution of the national unity government of former Prime Minister Haniyeh’s Hamas, and President Abbas’ Fatah, parties.

3· The IDF continued to mount operations in both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, searching for weapons, explosive devices, missiles, wanted militants, and tunnels from the Strip into Israel. There were several targeted killings of Islamic Jihad commanders responsible for missile, mortar, and previous, or attempted, suicide attacks upon Israel. Israel’s Security Service also arrested 11 Hamas members involved in recruiting East Jerusalem Arabs with Israeli Residency Permits and/or identity cards to commit acts of terrorism, and take over the Temple Mount from the Jordan-affiliated Waqf (Muslim Religious Trust), that traditionally run the holy site.
13 Qassam missiles landed in or near Sderot, and 16 mortar shells were fired at border crossings this week, a similar tally to last week’s. Despite the shelling, the Karni crossing (NE Gaza Strip), was reopened by Israel to border traffic.

4· Labour leader and Defence Minister Ehud Barak’s decision to force elections in 2008, should PM Ehud Olmert not resign from the government following the publication of the final draft of the Winograd report on the Second Lebanon War in mid September or early October, was accepted by the Labour Party Central Committee. Other members said not enough Central Committee members were present at the vote so it may have to be retaken.

5· Likud leader Bibi Netanyahu announced Likud Leadership Primaries would be held 3rd September in anticipation of early 2008 elections. Three Likud candidates have declared themselves so far. They include Netanyahu, ex-Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, and right-winger Moshe Feiglin. The same three candidates ran in the December 2005 Likud Leadership Primaries. Netanyahu is certain to be re-elected.

6· UNIFIL and LAF (Lebanese Army Forces) preliminary findings concerning both the 24 June bomb attack on UNIFIL and 17 June missile attack on N Israel, blamed Al Qaeda or their affiliates, the first such operations by them in Lebanon.

7· President Katsav formally handed in his resignation having accepted a plea bargain with Attorney General Menachem Mazuz. Katsav has to admit his guilt to the indecent act and sexual and witness harassment charges, pay compensation to two of the alleged eight victims, not appeal the charges, and accept a one year suspended jail sentence. The rape charges are dropped as part of the bargain. Knesset Speaker Labour’s Dalia Itzik is acting President until 15 July when Shimon Peres will become President. 15,000 women demonstrated against the plea bargain arrangement and it is currently under legal challenge by several campaign groups. President Katsav dismissed over 90% of the allegations against him including all the serious charges, and said he agreed to the bargain only in order to stop the distress to his family that the prolonged legal procedures and media scrutiny had engendered.

8· Prime Minister Ehud Olmert continued in his attempts to release 250 Palestinian prisoners with “no blood on their hands” to the new administration on the West Bank. The government also released $118 million in withheld tax receipts to President Abbas’ emergency cabinet. This allowed the first full payment in 17 months of wages to all civil servants, including security personnel, not affiliated with Hamas. PM Olmert accepted Finance Minister Abraham Hirshson’s resignation so he could deal with allegations of impropriety. Another Kadima MK, Ronnie Bar-On, replaced him. Olmert also noted that the State was unable to stop every Qassam as it was too expensive and that to live in Israel was to accept certain levels of risk.

9· Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair was selected to represent the Quartet (EU, Russia, UN, and USA), in the Middle East. This post normally focuses upon building Palestinian institutions in preparation for independence and statehood. These narrow parameters may be expanded to accommodate Mr Blair’s peacemaking ambitions.

· ANALYSIS - General Picture:

· Hamas’ success in freeing Alan Johnston is vital to their imposing their hegemony over Gaza. The criminal Dagmoush clan with its affiliations to Al Qaeda, have been curtailed. They can no longer play Hamas and Fatah off against each other and now know Hamas would crush them should they transgress Hamas’ interests. The release also gives Hamas credibility in their negotiations through Egypt with Israel in the prisoner exchange of kidnapped Corporal Schalit for 450 Palestinian prisoners. Most of the freed prisoners will belong to Hamas, but to placate some Fatah and other groups that are currently affiliated with Hamas in Gaza, non-Hamas prisoners may be demanded. This puts Israel in an invidious position. Hamas will gain at least 450 prisoners in exchange for a successful cross-border kidnap, but President Abbas will only receive 250 prisoners in exchange for a stated policy of non-violence and a reaffirmation of Fatah’s recognition of Israel. The most likely outcome will be the postponement of any deal with Hamas as Israel does not want to be seen rewarding the group and conversely does want to reward President Abbas.

· Another Palestinian national unity government is inevitable at some point. Even if elections are held and Hamas lose in Gaza, which is highly unlikely, Hamas would never allow Fatah rule over the Strip. An accommodation has to be reached. It is possible that President Abbas is preparing the ground for elections in the West Bank that would see a noticeable defeat for Hamas there. He can then bargain from a position of strength over the composition of the Cabinet, maintaining control over security and finance in the West Bank, whilst leaving Gaza to Hamas. This is unlikely to succeed without the support and release of the popular imprisoned leader Marwan Barghouti, currently in jail in Israel on multiple murder charges. He is the only Palestinian figure capable of uniting all the various Fatah and non-Hamas factions.

· Egypt’s rejection of a multi national force on the Sinai-Gaza border is a setback for Israel, as Egypt’s unwillingness or inability to curb the arms flows into Gaza is at the heart of the Hamas takeover. Egypt’s only means of influencing events in the Israel-Palestine dispute, or in Gaza itself, is through the manipulation of arms flows. Egypt wants to maintain this weapon as well as increase its military presence in the Sinai. It cannot do so without an agreement with Israel because of the terms of the 1979 Peace Accord, which restricts Egyptian forces’ numbers. Israel will have to agree to renegotiate the treaty to satisfy Egyptian concerns that are becoming ever more pressing. Egypt has to contend with an increase in Muslim Brotherhood activity, the infiltration of Al Qaeda into Sinai, and a recalcitrant Bedouin community whose main income is derived from arms and people smuggling.

· The most satisfactory result for Labour and Kadima would be if PM Olmert resigned soon after the final Winograd report is published between mid September and mid October. This will enable Kadima to elect or select a new leader and give time for Labour’s Ehud Barak to impose his authority upon the Defence post. The coalition could then continue until Barak thought it opportune to withdraw from the government and demand a general election. However, should Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni become leader of Kadima and the government, and move the peace process forward, the elections may be postponed until at least late 2008. If Olmert refuses to resign Kadima might well implode from internal differences and early elections may be forced upon all the parties. This is unlikely, as Olmert will probably use his position to remain in a government post in exchange for his resignation and a recommendation that Livni replace him.

· Syria’s collusion in allowing Al Qaeda into Lebanon from Syrian territory is her way of increasing pressure on the Saniora government to reject the UN Tribunal into the murder of PM Hariri. It is also a way of putting pressure on Israel to negotiate with her over the Golan Heights, and a warning to the US Administration that she can no longer be ignored. The US has imposed sanctions against Syria. It is also a way of warning the EU that Lebanon is within Syria’s sphere of influence not Europe’s or the United Nations’.

· President Katsav was granted a plea bargain for two reasons. First, rape charges, particularly so long after the event, are notoriously difficult to prosecute, and there is evidence that Katsav was in some kind of relationship with at least two of the alleged rape victims. Second, the effect of a long trial, with Katsav being the second President to have to resign early, would be contrary to Israel’s national interest because it would subject Israel and the post of the Presidency to international ridicule, as opposed to the plea bargain, which directly humiliates Katzav and stains his reputation forever.

· PM Olmert may be able to lay the early foundations of some kind of peace process but he will not be able to see anything through. He has 3-5% public support. The Winograd Committee report on the Second Lebanon War will be scathing not only about him but also about Barak, ex-Defence and current Transport Minister Mofaz, and many others. Livni is likely to escape criticism, which will strengthen her position. But, only strong Palestinian leadership can deliver peace, post-Olmert. The only strong leader who recognises Israel and can deliver the Palestinians to the peace table is the convicted mass murderer Marwan Barghouti. Livni will probably have to free him before there can be any movement. He will also save Abbas should any elections be held because he can unite Fatah as well as some Independents and Marxists. He will then be strong enough to make a deal with Hamas and present a united front at any negotiations without which there will be no progress. But such a scenario is unlikely at the moment and would most likely come only some time after an Israeli general election, if at all. Unfortunately for Abbas he will have to hold elections soon according to the PA’s Constitution. It is therefore possible that he will stall for time and call on a reconvened Palestine Liberation Organisation to run the West Bank, as it has no Hamas representatives, and is the sole internationally recognised representative organisation of the Palestinian people.

· Tony Blair will enter the Middle East during a time of uncertainty and transition, and will have to resign himself to many years of talks before he is likely to see any progress. He will need to be prepared to commit himself to three to five years’ hard negotiations if he is to witness any developments either in the peace process or in the institutional infrastructure of a nascent Palestinian State.


Links:
For the best English language news site on Israel:
http://www.jpost.com/

For a vigorous Liberal-Left position of the Israeli daily paper:
http://www.haaretz.com/

For a Centre-Left view on Israel, in occasionally appalling English:
http://www.ynetnews.com/home/0,7340,L-3083,00.html

For an insight into Arab and Muslim media coverage of the Israel-Palestinian issue, anti-Semitism, and other Middle East issues see:
http://www.memri.org/

For an overview of the media coverage of Israel see the BICOM (Britain Israel Research and Communications Centre) site. Below are the sites for -

News headlines with links to each site:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/headlines/

A written summary of the news:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/

The main issues behind the news:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/behind_the_news/

Extracts from editorial and article Opinion:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/comment_and_opinion/

A small selection of Quotes:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/quote_of_the_day/

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