Week 12 September – 19 September 2007

This site is unconnected to the award winning blog concerned with:
"Reflections on human rights and peacemaking in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict"
for that site please click on:
http://guidetotheperplexed.blogspot.com/

· EVENTS
· ANALYSIS

· Main Points:

1· 8 Qassam missiles fell on or near Sderot this week, the second successive reduction in attacks in the last two weeks; Islamic Jihad and the Popular Resistance Committees fired 15 mortar shells on the Gaza-Israel border crossing areas, a 33% reduction on last week. Hamas had called for a cessation of shelling, especially on the border crossings during Ramadan, in an effort to ease supplies into Gaza over the festival month. Hamas repeated their appeal to cease fire to Islamic Jihad and the Popular Resistance Committees this week but have so far been met with an unfavourable response.
Hamas and the Popular Resistance Committees have confirmed they are discussing kidnapped corporal Schalit’s release with European intermediaries but blame Israel and the soldier’s parents for not doing enough to meet their demands. They also stated Egypt was likely to re-enter prisoner swap talks soon.

2· Israel declared the Gaza Strip a “hostile entity”. Israel remains legally obliged to meet Gaza’s basic humanitarian needs. Israel will not feel obliged to meet any other needs, however, and the onus will be on others to prove on a case by case basis whether it should be otherwise. The United Nations has asked Israel to reconsider or clarify its position.
It was revealed this week that medical staff in Gaza have been working a go-slow for the last month after the sacking by Hamas of Fatah-affiliated doctors from the main hospitals there. Senior medical positions are now being given to Hamas supporters only. Senior sacked Fatah-affiliated medical staff that have re-entered their hospitals have been arrested.
The last senior Fatah representative was sacked from the Religious Affairs Ministry in Gaza and Hamas paid out $12 million in salaries to 16,000 Hamas-supporting government officials in the Strip.
Hamas has stated it will not enforce the daylight Ramadan fast but its Executive Force militia has made it clear it will not tolerate open breaches of the religious practice.
For the second week running polls show a decline in support for Hamas and an increase for President Abbas and Fatah both in the West Bank and Gaza.

3· President Abbas and Prime Minister Fayyad have banned charity fund raising activity during Ramadan on the West Bank to prevent Hamas boosting its finances. They have also ended all payments to senior Hamas politicians and ex government ministers for continuing to support the coup in Gaza. Other Hamas legislators continue to receive their salaries.
Both Abbas and PM Fayyad continue to cast doubt on the relevance of holding the proposed November summit in Washington. The most likely date for the conference will be 19-21 November. So far Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait, have all said that the conference can serve no purpose without specific goals and timetables, and most appealed to the United States to include Syria.
Prime Minister Olmert has so far focussed on a joint statement with President Abbas on their broad goals. Any “declaration of principles” would need to pass a Cabinet vote and then be put to a vote before the Knesset.

4· The IDF’s head of Military Intelligence told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee that Hamas cells in the West Bank remain determined to carry out a large terror attack in Israel before the proposed November conference. Several IDF operations against Hamas and Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine suicide cells in the West Bank continued throughout the week exposing bomb factories and their personnel.
Defence Minister Barak has said he will keep the permanent checkpoints on the West Bank for the time being but remove obstacles and barricades gradually whilst he trains mobile IDF checkpoint teams to replace them.
The release of 100 Fatah supporters for Ramadan has been delayed because the Justice Ministry and security services have not had time to check their records, and there were objections from members of the coalition government after recent breaches of amnesty by previously released prisoners.

5· PM Olmert called for peace talks with Syria without preconditions despite Syria’s “internal problems.” Binyamin Netanyahu became the first official to publicly confirm that an operation did take place against Syria two weeks ago and to signal his support for what was achieved. US officials linked the Israeli action to the presence of North Korean scientists and engineers in Syria and confirmed it was in a desert area in the northeast of the country.
The IDF resumed large-scale military manoeuvres on the Golan Heights. United Nations observers were apprised and were asked to reassure Syria there was no hostile intent. It was also reported that the Russian Ambassador to Syria had warned of an Israeli strike or operation several weeks ago but Russian Intelligence had said it would be on the Golan Heights.

6· Lebanese politicians returned this week from sojourns abroad taken both for a break and to ensure their own security. They came to take part in the country's 2-month Presidential campaign that is due to end in the candidate’s being selected by the Legislature on or by 23 November.
Antoine Ghanem, a pro-government Christian Phalangist MP, was assassinated by a car bomb two days after his homecoming. He is the 7th prominent anti-Syrian Lebanese personality to be assassinated since Syria’s alleged assassination of Prime Minister Hariri, and the 4th anti-Syrian government MP. Syria is still under UN investigation for its alleged role in the Hariri murder and a vote by the United Nations Security Council on the next stage of implementing an international tribunal is expected this month or in October.

7· Iran stated that on the regime’s “Quds Day” (12 October) when it traditionally calls for the destruction of Israel, "supporters of the Zionist regime will definitely receive the final response for their support.”
Iran apparently lost dozens of technicians in a purpose-built chemical weapons base near Halab in north Syria in July as they attempted to attach a chemical weapon onto a Scud missile resulting in the spread of sarin and mustard gas. 15 Syrian personnel also died.

· ANALYSIS - General Picture:

· The deliberate reduction in Qassam and mortar attacks indicates the strength of Hamas control over the Gaza Strip. The reductions are due to Hamas’ desire to create calm during Ramadan as well as a measure of the genuine pressure they are under from IDF incursions and economic collapse. Nevertheless, Hamas-rule remains unchallenged. Their demand for a prisoner swap also indicates a continued desire for a political victory to bolster their position. Hamas rule through its Executive Force militia is becoming increasingly unpopular and is reflected in their 21% support rating in the latest poll. Support for Fatah has reached 50%.

· Israel’s classification of Gaza as a “hostile entity” gives her greater leeway to apply pressure to the Strip. It cannot remove Hamas from power but over time it can make Gazans think twice if they are offered a credible alternative. Unfortunately the reason many Palestinians voted for Hamas in the first instance was to rid themselves of Fatah’s corrupt and murderous rule. Only a radically reformed Fatah can offer a credible alternative to Hamas, and President Abbas has shown a singular genius for inaction in that regard.

· It is clear from statements from all “moderate” Arab governments that unless Israel can offer a reasonably speedy and detailed withdrawal plan, none can see the point of the proposed summit of 19-21 November in Washington.
The Palestinians want to return to the last negotiating positions they had reached at the Camp David peace talks of 2000, in which Jerusalem was the capital of Palestine and a land swap had been agreed.
Israel prefers a confidence-building gradualist approach that can build a strong Palestinian economy and society to act as a solid base for a stage-by-stage withdrawal with security guarantees.
The Palestinians simply don’t believe that Israel is interested in ever leaving the West Bank, and Israel does not trust Palestine to avoid becoming yet another platform for thousands of rocket launches against her.
These two positions are clearly irreconcilable and can only be bridged by the carefully organised intervention of an international force that can cater to both party’s concerns. The Arabs are right to be concerned about the lack of detail and Israel about the lack of any realistic assessment of the current security situation.
Unless the United States can address these issues and bring in a credible international force to divide the parties and ensure a smooth transition the proposed summit will either simply not occur or will produce nothing substantial. In any case no serious negotiations can occur without Syria and Hamas, and they, in turn, cannot be involved without Iran’s complicity.
Nevertheless, there are a series of meetings of the Quartet, Ad Hoc Liaison Committee for Palestine, United Nations Security Council, and the 62nd UN General Assembly this coming week that offer an opportunity to introduce more creative solutions, as well more destructive offerings, to the table.

· Binyamin Netanyahu has inadvertently confirmed the air strike on Syria. This is the second ludicrous blunder by a senior Israeli politician within a year. PM Olmert last year gave the impression Israel had nuclear weapons despite it being state policy to deny that is the case.
Olmert used the phrase “internal problems” to describe Assad’s reluctance or inability to talk peace. This was Olmert’s barbed response to President Assad’s jibe that he saw no point in talking to Olmert because he is too weak.
Iran and Russia failed to defend Syria. Iran in particular will be looking for the first opportunity to avenge the humiliation and prove the value of its strategic alliance with its Syrian ally.
Russia’s intelligence was good enough to warn Syria of an impending strike or operation, and it is clear that Russia has succeeded in penetrating Israel’s defence establishment, though still remains outside the inner circle.
It remains to be seen whether Russia’s anti-air defences were truly neutralised by Israeli jamming devices but this will only spur Syria to introduce more Russian military technology not less.
United States officials' references to North Korean technicians in Syria probably have more to do with maintaining pressure on the Chinese and Russians to enforce North Korean and Iranian compliance with United Nations resolutions on nuclear demilitarisation than whether or not North Korea had actually secreted nuclear materials in Syria. There were no secondary explosions, no complaints of chemical or other particles landing on third countries. The most likely explanation is that Israel destroyed a facility that was in the process of being built for as yet unknown purposes.

· Syria has reasserted its influence on Lebanese politics by simply liquidating its enemies. It wants a compliant President and believes it has the backing of the Pope in its efforts after recent talks in which the Papacy agreed it wanted a compromise Presidential candidate. The Lebanese Christian community is perennially divided and the Syrian regime has found it useful to use the supine papacy to help ease its passage to overall control of Lebanon. It is also a timely reminder, after Israel’s alleged violation of her air space, that Syria still considers Lebanon part of her sphere of influence.
The United Nations Security Council is about to deliberate upon Syria’s involvement in the murder of Prime Minister Hariri and several other prominent political figures. Syria could not have made a more obvious gesture of contempt towards both it and its procedures. It is correctly counting on Russian and Chinese vetoes and Iranian military might to protect it.

· Iran has threatened a stern response to all those who support Zionism by 12 October “Al Quds Day” in which it pledges its support for Palestine and the destruction of Israel.
The breach of Syria’s defences has activated the Iran-Syria mutual defence agreement in which both parties have pledged to come to each other’s aid should either be attacked.
Syria and Iran were involved in the destruction of the Pan Am flight over Lockerbie in 1988 and it should come as no surprise if a similar attempt is not made on an Israel-related target in any part of the globe.
One of the last successful Iran-Syria collaborations against a Jewish target was the 18 July 1994 bombing of the Jewish Community Centre in Buenos Aires that killed 86 and wounded 300. Due to Argentine corruption and incompetence no one was ever charged with the atrocity.
However, it is important to reiterate that western intelligence today is of a different order to previous decades, and the link to Iran and Syria will not be easily disguised. Not that that bothers Iran or Syria judging by this week's murder of Antoine Ghanem.


Links:
For the best English language news site on Israel:
http://www.jpost.com/

For a vigorous Liberal-Left position of the Israeli daily paper:
http://www.haaretz.com/

For a Centre-Left view on Israel, in occasionally appalling English:
http://www.ynetnews.com/home/0,7340,L-3083,00.html

For an insight into Arab and Muslim media coverage of the Israel-Palestinian issue, anti-Semitism, and other Middle East issues see:
http://www.memri.org/

For an overview of the media coverage of Israel see the BICOM (Britain Israel Research and Communications Centre) site. Below are the sites for -

News headlines with links to each site:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/headlines/

A written summary of the news:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/

The main issues behind the news:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/behind_the_news/

Extracts from editorial and article Opinion:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/comment_and_opinion/

A small selection of Quotes:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/quote_of_the_day/

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