Week 22 August – 28 August 2007

This site is unconnected to the award winning blog concerned with:
"Reflections on human rights and peacemaking in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict"
for that site please click on:
http://guidetotheperplexed.blogspot.com/

· EVENTS
· ANALYSIS

· Main Points:

1· 14 Qassam missiles and 7 mortar rounds were fired at Israel and the border crossings this week, roughly similar to last week. 1 missile made a direct hit on a kindergarten in Sderot, the 2nd such event in as many weeks. Islamic Jihad confirmed that they fired the Qassam missiles with Hamas approval and coordination. 500 missiles and mortars have been fired from Gaza since 31 May 2007.
There was a substantial increase in Palestinian youths penetrating the fences and walls around Gaza, including a 2-man armed Popular Resistance Committee (Fatah Al Aqsa, Islamic Jihad and Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, Army of Islam coalition) cell that successfully scaled part of the border comprised of a 9 metre high wall and were only detected after they fired upon several border and IDF posts several kilometres inside Israel.
Hamas have successfully smuggled 40 tons of TNT from Sinai in the last month.
Syria-based Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal ordered a large-scale attack by West Bank-based Hamas cells on Israel; he also gave a 3 hour interview for CNN setting out Hamas’ position and explaining why US peace efforts were doomed to failure because they excluded Hamas and Syria.

2· Hamas released a series of statements this week concerning: prisoner exchanges; the inevitable failure of the November regional summit in Washington; and the basis for re-establishing the status quo ante in Gaza. Hamas reiterated they wanted significant representation within the PLO, and the reinstatement of Parliament in exchange for the reestablishment of Palestinian Authority institutions in Gaza. Hamas also blamed Israel for the breakdown in the prisoner swap talks two months previously.
Fatah continued to organise anti-Hamas rallies in Gaza, which were violently broken up by Hamas security forces. Hamas accused Fatah of setting up secret cells to assassinate senior Hamas figures and anticipated further pressures would be applied upon them as the November summit approached. Palestinian journalists in both Gaza and the West Bank protested against the daily, including death, threats against them by both Hamas and Fatah.
Sources close to President Abbas insisted he would not stand for re-election and that he wanted a younger generation of Fatah leaders to succeed him.
Prime Minister Fayyad stated he would freeze 103 bank accounts for breaches in laws governing civil groups. Most appeared to belong to groups associated with Hamas.

3· Defence Minister and Labour Party leader Ehud Barak stated he may have to delay leaving the government and forcing an election because of his Party’s $30 million debt. Labour Secretary General Eitan Cabel, and treasurer Moshe Amit confessed the Party faced liquidation if it did not sack its staff and sell all its remaining assets.

4· The controversy over the lack of protection for the children of Sderot continued. 20-25% of Sderot’s children have not been registered for the coming week’s new scholastic year. State Comptroller Micha Lindenstrauss visited Sderot and expressed deep concern. The High Court allowed the government several months to complete its protection of Sderot’s schools, and delayed for 3 weeks its response to the government’s request that the deadline to protect Sderot’s schools be extended by another 3 years (sic).

5· Over 10 non-senior Kadima MKs unofficially threatened to resign before the publication of the Winograd findings in November should PM Olmert not stand down. Likud offered them places on its list should they resign soon.

6· The United Nations Security Council unanimously agreed to extend UNIFIL’s mandate in southern Lebanon for another year. This followed a plea from the Lebanese government. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni welcomed the decision.

7· Syria and Iran claimed they were both capable and willing to fill the vacuum that will be created by the withdrawal of western forces from Iraq. President Ahmadinejad claimed Iran was now “nuclear” and that western attempts to thwart her plans had failed. Iran also unveiled its latest 900-kilogram “smart bomb” which can be fired from its F-4 and F-5 jets. Iran has also completed its supplies to Hizb’allah in south Lebanon of its C-802 Chinese designed anti-ship missiles, as well as anti-air missiles to supplement its re-supply of ground to ground short, medium, and long range missiles.

· ANALYSIS - General Picture:

· Hamas’ efforts are mainly focussed on making them impossible to ignore in the oncoming talks scheduled for Washington in November. Khaled Meshaal insisted talks that excluded Syria would go nowhere. It is clear from the increase in incursions and the planned mass killings inside Israel that both Syria and Hamas are deeply frustrated by the Bush Administration’s insistence on their exclusion and the lack of progress on the prisoner exchange with Israel. Hamas are also beginning to feel the pressure from the mass unemployment in Gaza caused by the border closures with Israel and Egypt, which are being accompanied by financial restrictions by the Palestinian Authority.

· President Abbas has not refuted the repeated rumours he will not stand in the 2008 Legislative and Presidential elections. This position puts pressure upon Israel and Hamas to make concessions before somebody less amenable to compromise replaces him, but it is also self-defeating because the closer Abbas is to retirement the less relevant he becomes to the negotiations. It has also created turmoil within Fatah as the older and younger generations fight each other for power.
Fatah still has the ability to undermine Hamas in Gaza and can bury any peace process at will. Independent Prime Minister Fayyad has also shown, at President Abbas’ urging, the ability to make Hamas rule in Gaza problematic by undermining Hamas’ funding.

· Defence Minister and Labour Party leader Ehud Barak may have found the excuse he needs to gain more time as Defence Minister before forcing a general election at a time of his choosing, namely, his party’s near bankruptcy.
Barak’s hope is to call an election in late 2008, which will give him both 18 months as Defence Minister and time to stabilise Labour’s funding. His hope must be that Olmert survives the Winograd Committee findings into the Second Lebanon War due out in November, and, by remaining prime minister not only cause fissures within the ruling Kadima party but also sabotage any chance it may have of surviving beyond the next election.
Unfortunately for Barak there remains the possibility that Kadima will split forcing an election at the least propitious time for Labour, when it won’t be able to finance an election campaign and will look ridiculous in the eyes of the electorate, or, Olmert will resign and his replacement will be capable of holding both Kadima and the government together as well as being popular with the public.
However, only Avi Dichter, the current Interior Minister, is capable of fulfilling such a role but he has, so far, ruled himself out of the running. He is also an inexperienced politician having first been elected in March 2006.
Shaul Mofaz, the Transport Minister and ex Chief of Staff remains popular amongst both the public and the Kadima party membership but his political and military record is deeply flawed and he is as inexperienced as Avi Dichter.

· The controversy over the lack of protection for Sderot's children has highlighted the strategic need for an anti-missile system. The Arrow2 system that was based in 2 locations only has now been more widely dispersed across the North.
The aim is to have a triple-layered anti-missile defence system. The Arrow2 system is designed to counter long-range missiles; the "David's Sling" system in development by Rafael is designed to counter medium range missiles; and, the "Iron Dome" system still currently under development is meant to counter Qassam and Katyusha short-range missiles. Ehud Barak has said it will take 3 to 5 years to get the systems in place assuming the various development budgets are not, once again, cut.

· Iranian and Syrian claims that they are willing and able to fill the vacuum caused by British and US withdrawal from Iraq in 2008 is meant to remind the US Congress that the Bush Administration’s position of refusing to engage seriously with either of them is both futile and counterproductive. This may be the case but such statements do nothing to assuage the fears of all parties in the region. The Arab League has suggested talks but has refused to countenance a unilateral Syrian-Iranian strategy for Iraq. The Iran-Syria position has simply made future Saudi and Israeli interference in both Iraq and Iran inevitable. However, at present, both Iran and Syria feel they are on the verge of a historic defeat of the West and its centuries-long interference in their region.

· Syria sent an emissary to Israel to express its willingness to engage in talks without the United States, a major change in its previous position, but that it was unwilling to rupture its strategic alliance with Iran as a precondition. Israel’s position remains unchanged it cannot afford to engage in talks with Syria without the express consent of the Bush Administration, which refuses to grant it because of Syria’s role in global terrorism and its pivotal role in supporting the killing of US forces in Iraq.
The Administration has also made it clear that it will not tolerate Iran’s destabilising role in Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Palestine, particularly when coupled to a nuclear weapons threat. President Bush’s assessment of the credibility of Syria’s peace overtures is predicated on Syria’s willingness to distance itself from Iran.

· Syria will not give up its strategic military and financial relationship with Iran, not whilst it sees the US and western coalition forces on the verge of defeat in the region. It remains in Iran’s interest to maintain the Syrian regime in power but the current US Administration sees the Syrian regime as a threat to regional stability. Unless the US makes it clear that they will support the continued rule of the Syrian regime and support it financially and militarily, and allow it to interfere in Lebanon, there is no incentive for Syria to meet US demands to break its links with Iran.


Links:
For the best English language news site on Israel:
http://www.jpost.com/

For a vigorous Liberal-Left position of the Israeli daily paper:
http://www.haaretz.com/

For a Centre-Left view on Israel, in occasionally appalling English:
http://www.ynetnews.com/home/0,7340,L-3083,00.html

For an insight into Arab and Muslim media coverage of the Israel-Palestinian issue, anti-Semitism, and other Middle East issues see:
http://www.memri.org/

For an overview of the media coverage of Israel see the BICOM (Britain Israel Research and Communications Centre) site. Below are the sites for -

News headlines with links to each site:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/headlines/

A written summary of the news:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/

The main issues behind the news:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/behind_the_news/

Extracts from editorial and article Opinion:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/comment_and_opinion/

A small selection of Quotes:
http://www.bicom.org.uk/briefings/quote_of_the_day/

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