Note on Israel- Syria - North Korea

Journalists get things wrong most of the time when reporting the Middle East for a simple reason: they cannot, because of their job's constraints, analyse the big picture or even the detail.
Israel attacked, and was allowed to attack, the facility in Syria because of the negotiations with North Korea, which looked as though they might founder as a result of Chinese, Russian, and North Korean obtuseness and South Korean cowardice.
Bush wanted to give them a timely reminder that however much they may be enjoying his discomfort in Iraq and Afghanistan, he still had some options available.
The historic talks between South and North Korea went well it appears. But, they only did so because the Chinese put pressure on North Korea, and they only bothered to do that because the stakes had been risen by Bush by his blessing of the strike on Syria.
Bush also mentioned proliferation three times within a week just before and after the strike.
He was reiterating to the Chinese, Russians, Iranians, and Syrians, that he was not prepared to tolerate proliferation. There were red lines.
Proliferation was a key issue in the talks with North Korea and they blatantly tried to get round any agreements they were making at the time. By bombing the Syrian facility Bush was telling the Russians and Chinese etc to get their act together and put pressure on the North Koreans to act properly.
Finally, Bush let Israel hit Syria because of his irritation with her double dealing and killing of US soldiers in Iraq, and Syria's murders in Lebanon. Allied to that he wanted both the Syrian and Iranian regimes to know that he was not afraid to pursue the military option. He is aware that they have become centres of international terrorism, that they spread and support international terrorism, and that they are seeking to strengthen themselves by providing North Korea with a haven for its nuclear technology and funds for the sale of its technology.
This also obviously applies to Iran who have been publicly stating they will sell their nuclear technology to anyone who hates America. In other words proliferation.
The hysterical pronouncements by unnamed European officials that the world was on the verge of the third world war are without foundation. The reason is simple. Regimes like those in Iran and Syria are only interested in one thing: staying in power. If they can avoid losing power they will. They might respond at some stage with an act of terrorism but they won't do anything big enough to provoke a major response. At least not as things stand. They believe they are currently winning, so why give the US Administration any excuses it may need to use the military option?
If the reports are true concerning the Pakistan-based Khan network sale of centrifuges to Syria that would explain why Israel was genuinely concerned, and why they were prepared to take the risks they did.

This site is unconnected to the award winning blog concerned with:
"Reflections on human rights and peacemaking in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict"
for that site please click on:
http://guidetotheperplexed.blogspot.com/

Updates on this site will resume 21 October 2007

19 September - 30 September 2007

In Memoriam
Professor John Doyle Klier (1944–2007)
Former Head University College London Hebrew & Jewish Studies Department
Sidney and Elizabeth Corob Professor of Modern Jewish History
Specialist and scholar of East European Jewish History
World authority on Russia's perceptions and treatment of Jews 1760-1917
Co-author with Helen Mingay ‘The Search for Anastasia: Solving the Riddle of the Lost Romanovs’