Barak forced to put Gaza op on hold

• Analysis

It appears a large-scale operation against Hamas and the various other missile-capable militant groups in Gaza is on hold. Several reasons for restraint have been added to those of the previous post (see 13 February 2008).

This brake, however, will only hold if there are no major civilian losses in Israel or abroad, or another major breach in the border with Egypt is avoided.

Further reasons for restraint are:

1. Egypt has finally become serious about restricting smuggling into Gaza. Several tunnels have been destroyed, and the US is actively cooperating with, financing, training, and equipping Egyptian border forces. Egypt has also expressed genuine concern about Iran’s increasing presence within her sphere of influence and is finally beginning to appreciate what a danger this may mean to the regime’s future hold on power. Iran is actively backing the Egyptian regime’s main rivals for power the Muslim Brotherhood.

2. Israel has finally acquiesced to Egypt’s request to allow over and above the 700 troops permitted under the Camp David Agreement up to the Egypt-Israel border.

3. There still remains a possibility that IDF soldier Gilad Shalit might be released if a period of calm can be established. Egypt has increased its pressure on Hamas by arresting and torturing its members in Sinai and by closing several tunnels as part of her efforts to get Hamas to impose a period of calm.

4. There is a strong possibility that any operation could easily spread to Syria and Lebanon, and include Iranian forces. Israel’s civilian population will be vulnerable and there is no system in place to protect them at present. Little to no work has been done on Israel’s shelters due to budgetary constraints and lack of will and leadership. Also, US forces in Iraq remain vulnerable to Iranian-controlled Shia militia attack. Israel does not want to jeopardise an already delicate situation there.

5. PM Olmert is not interested in any confrontation in Gaza. He sees no political or military advantage for either himself or Israel. His relations with President Bush are good and he sees no reason to upset them other than under exceptional circumstances.

6. Chief-of-Staff Gabi Ashkenazi is adamant no major operation or assassination is to take place unless there is a clear military or political strategy in place that advances Israel’s security interests and does not endanger kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit’s life.

7. Barak does not have the support of the Left of his Labour Party for any major offensive in Gaza. In fact anything that may bolster Barak’s political standing is anathema to former Labour Defence Minister Amir Peretz who still hopes to displace Barak.

8. Talks with Syria are still possible and Barak supports this avenue of the peace process more than the Palestinian one as he sees it as more advantageous as well as productive. If Syria can be engaged the threat from Iran recedes and the Palestinian track becomes more amenable to peace.

9. November 2008 is a convenient period for both Olmert and Barak to declare their respective political decisions for going to the country (i.e. February/March 2009 elections). Olmert will be presenting a peace package that he will have agreed with Abbas and will be canvassing for a mandate to implement it. Barak will be making a similar case but will insist that only he can be trusted to implement it without endangering Israel’s security. November 4 will see the results of local municipal elections that also free government funds to parties for elections. Labour is bankrupt and needs this cash to boost its general election effort. They will also be fighting any Spring 2009 election knowing the identity of the new US President and will be able to modulate their campaigns accordingly.


There are severe problems that arise from maintaining restraint:

• Hamas and all the other militant groups will continue to restock their arsenals, dig tunnels, and lay roadside bombs across the Gaza Strip. They will also extend the range and capability (explosive warhead load) of their Qassam and Grad missiles.

• The Iranian and Al Qaeda forces in Gaza will have time to train and prepare their forces for any future confrontation.

• Militant groups throughout Gaza can deploy anti-aircraft missiles as the smuggling can only be reduced not ended.


The advantages to Israel are:
a) More time is acquired to prepare the IDF and Home Front for any future confrontation should one arise.

b) A new government with a clearer mandate to halt or pursue the peace process will be in power.

c) A new US President with at least 4 years residency will be in place to support any new Israeli government decision or strategy.

d) The Iron Dome anti-missile defence system will be closer to deployment.

e) Both Iran and Syria will have come under increasing pressure in relation to the UN investigations into their nuclear weapons programmes and assassination of Lebanese officials respectively.


Prognosis:
There will be no major offensive in Gaza unless a major attack on Israel or abroad results in severe loss of life. Smaller limited operations will almost certainly continue.
However, one miscalculation by any Iranian or Syrian security apparatus cell, or group, or any of their Palestinian proxies, could result in a larger scale confrontation.
Should a major operation be considered it is clear that Israel is ready to fight on several fronts simultaneously and will improvise its civil defence. Israel still has the capacity to destroy both Syria and Lebanon’s infrastructures and armed forces should it be considered necessary.
Such a war will resolve nothing other than temporarily re-establishing Israel’s deterrence capability until the almost inevitable subsequent military confrontations that will probably involve both Iran and Al Qaeda.

Key articles:
Israel Buying Time In Gaza:
http://www.ynetnews.com/Ext/Comp/ArticleLayout/CdaArticlePrintPreview/1,2506,L-3525042,00.html

Politics: Time for a Change in Personnel
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1207238154718&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter

Source General (updated daily):
http://www.bicom.org.uk/news